drew.tech: it's (not) so over

Hey there,

It's been a while since I've sent one of these. Instead of trying to catch up on all that's happened, I'll give you my read of where things are.

Some people would say it's over.

They'd say the AI trade is falling apart while Anthropic readies to IPO but their revenue seems to be plateauing. According to them, CoreWeave is now days away from bankruptcy. They'd also say OpenAI Dev Day is proof they're distracted again and Google is nowhere to be found.

But these doomers will be proven wrong again.

We are at a scary point in the AI build out. Macro issues like the war in Iran & high rates are cause for concern.

I believe end user token demand is all that matters and that demand is strong.

I've seen what applying AI to a business can do. At Vercel, we're rethinking how we operate. What I've seen is that the ROI of applying tokens to your operations is nearly always worth it.

I have a nearly infinite backlog of tasks where AI can replace the grunt work a human was doing for 1/10th the cost that frees them up to help customers more (and win more business).

And I don't think Vercel is special. Businesses all across the globe have a massive backlog of token demand (and it's not just engineering tokens).

The top 1% of firms have it figured out how to deploy AI. Everyone else needs help. Startups will show up, figure out how to apply AI to specific businesses, and help companies buy and deploy it. Startups will deliver tokens to the masses.

And the more startups that exist, the better.

We're still seeing the returns of scale in venture. The big are getting bigger. But AI is also the best tool ever for starting your own thing. You can get the output of a full staff without raising a dollar of venture. It's never been better to be the little guy.

Two things from me:

One is super practical, the other is commentary on the market.

Both are worth a read, especially the "Commoditization of photos and code" piece if you're feeling some anxiety about AI taking your job or disrupting your business model.

As for next week, Anthropic's S-1 leaked last week so maybe we'll see the official version soon. But right now the alpha is in tuning out the noise, building stuff, and touching grass.

LFG,

Drew

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